Fair Probability
n/a
Waiting for live row
Beta Version
Polymarket probability engine
Supercharged beta terminal for pricing BTC 15m Polymarket contracts against your own intrabar model.
The UI talks only to the public indicators API. It shows fair-price repricing, breakout pressure, live Polymarket orderbook state, and current candle context without touching the internal calculator or streamer services.
Latest fair-price row
No live fair-price rows yet.
Break Up H1
n/a
Waiting for breakout-up row
Break Down H1
n/a
Waiting for breakout-down row
Polymarket YES Ask
n/a
No active market detected
API Health
unknown
https://api-indicators.serhii.marbell.com
Current 15m Open
n/a
No intrabar state yet
Polymarket live 15m market
Current BTC 15m contract discovered from Gamma and streamed from the public Polymarket market websocket.
WS status: idle
No active BTC 15m Polymarket market discovered yet.
Fair-price vs Polymarket canvas
Live market probability against the latest fair-price model stack for the active BTC 15m contract.
15m BTC candle
Current 15m BTC candle from Binance websocket, with fair probability and Polymarket probability overlaid inside the same canvas.
Contract alignment
Waiting for current 15m market discovery.
Gap explanation
Why the live market point can be ahead of the latest fair-price point.
latest timestamps
model n/a
market n/a
gap n/a
Waiting for both model and market timestamps.
Fair-price stream
Latest 1m repricing rows for the active 15m candle.
/btc-fair-price-15m
| time | prob | model | theory | close |
|---|
Breakout reference
15m H1 breakout up/down probabilities for comparison with fair-price.
/btc-break-15m-up-h1 + /btc-break-15m-down-h1
Break Up H1
n/a
Recent breakout-up probability
n/a
tap to expand
Break Down H1
n/a
Recent breakout-down probability
n/a
tap to expand
| time | up prob | down prob | up pred | down pred | close |
|---|